Is this a first? Visiting PM’s ALWAYS get offered something, as a gesture
Yet the 2nd largest economy in the World had nothing to give him
Stand for Our Sovereignty deconstructs Sir Keir’s ‘Whisky Galore’ Chinese trip and comes up thirsty
In the short time Sir Keir Starmer has been Prime Minister, the UK has racked up a deficit in excess of £75bn in its trade of goods with China. To put this another way, we have bought over £75bn worth of goods from China more than they have bought from us.
That surplus of £75bn has increased China’s GDP to the detriment of the UK’s. Our Prime Minister went to China to drum up business – and thereby growth – for the UK. Sadly it didn’t turn out that way.
The No.10 PR machine versus the facts
The Facts4EU and Stand for Our Sovereignty teams have spent several days poring over all the announcements which flowed out of No.10 during Sir Keir’s latest globe-trotting adventure to China and Japan. Rather inconveniently for the Government, we have also analysed the latest trade data.
With Sir John Redwood commenting, we have once again collaborated exclusively with GB News to produce the first of these explainers on the connection between exports, imports, and trade balances – in layman’s terms.
In this first report, we ask “What did he get out of it for us – apart from more air-miles?”
Here is one thing we know: Our PM is now ‘Clear-Eyed Keir’
We now know from the series of repetitive statements drip-fed out of No.10 that if there is one term that categorises Sir Keir Starmer’s attitude to doing business with China, it’s that he was ‘clear-eyed’. If this came up once it came up a dozen times, closely followed by his consistency.
Where there was ‘engagement’, it was ‘consistent’ and above all ‘clear-eyed’. And where there was a need for cooperation this did of course entail being consistent. And, well, clear-eyed. We hope that is clear.
What are Sir John Redwood’s initial thoughts?
“The PM’s trip to China gave President Xi three big wins. Before leaving, Sir Keir insisted on permission for their mega-embassy in the City of London on a prime historic site, close to crucial information cables sustaining our state and its economy.
“The Chinese enticed UK company Astra Zeneca to make a big commitment to invest in R&D and pharmaceutical production in China at a time when Astra Zeneca has announced the cancellation of its Speke investment and is pausing on its Cambridge investment, before going to China with the PM.
“President Xi will allow more UK tourists and travellers to visit China for longer without a visa, boosting their future travel and hospitality revenues from UK consumers.”
– The Rt Hon Sir John Redwood, 05 Feb 2026
Why is Sir Keir fixated on China?
Some readers may wonder at Sir Keir’s enthusiasm for China. It is not necessary to look too far. A clue may be found in one of several small distractions which were used to draw attention away from the unfortunate fact there were no big export orders announced.
That little distraction was visa-free travel to China for 30 days. Anyone would have thought this was a unique concession. It is not. This is now something he can share with the EU’s Top 3: Germany, France and Italy, as well as almost 50 other countries who had this already. In effect, this was long overdue.
In jetting off to Beijing, Sir Keir followed in the footsteps of the Spanish and Irish leaders, as well as the ubiquitous President Macron – and Chancellor Merz will visit next month. The EU-loving PM has certainly ensured his credentials are in line with the actions of the most powerful leaders in the EU. If it was also designed to give one in the eye to President Trump, we doubt it registered much.
To business and growth – the ostensible reasons for the trip
Having established the PM was clear-eyed about China’s many worrying behaviours (its grotesque human rights abuses, for example), what about the holy grail? Growth through trade? This, we were told, was his main reason for visiting.
Deeply embarrassing for Sir Keir Starmer, he came away without one single large export order to crow about. Not one.
To give some context, China’s economy is so large, and Xi Jinping’s power so great, the CCP’s Chairman could have arranged for a large export order to be given to a headline-making British company, without making the smallest dent in China’s massive trade surplus with the UK. Here are the figures.
1. The UK’s imports of goods from China
China has been doing well out of selling to the UK. We expect this to accelerate again, as Ed Miliband rolls out more of his enormous solar farms (panels made in China) and wind turbines (many of them made in China).
2. China’s apparent disinterest in buying British products
Sadly, the chart below speaks for itself.
3. China’s massive trade surplus in goods with the UK
The final chart below shows how the UK’s deficit with China can soon add up. In the time between Labour taking power in July 2024 and November 2025, the latest date for which these figures are available, China racked up a goods trade surplus with the UK of more than £75 billion.
And these are figures we converted into real terms, removing the effects of inflation.
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But… But… What about Whisky Galore and all the successes the PM crowed about?
Ah yes, those. As readers expect from Facts4EU, the team waded through each one, looking for a new, large export order. Not only wasn’t there a single one, it turns out the announcements were all yesterday’s news. Or, to be more accurate, mostly news from 2025 or earlier. In next week’s follow-up report we will delve into some of the more amusing detail of these, as well as revealing a great number of more embarrassing facts which the PM would rather you not know about. As for the minor tweak in terms for Scotch whisky, we will leave that to Sir John.
Here are Sir John’s scathing views
“When it comes to UK wins, the PM is rightly asked what were they? As Facts4EU has revealed, there were no big export orders for UK manufacturers.
“Even the government thinks the extra whisky that could be sold with 5% off the price thanks to a tariff cut will be small. Their optimistic £50m of extra business a year from this will be invisible in a £3,000,000 million UK economy.
“We were not told about how many export orders the Chinese will win out of it, but with all those cheaper electric cars, solar panels, wind turbine parts, large batteries and the rest, China will doubtless expand its exports by much more than £50m, meaning UK GDP will go down as a result of the likely trade changes. Several companies travelling with the PM are big importers from China already.
“Remember, exports mean higher UK GDP and imports lower, as GDP measures what we make and do in the UK.”
– The Rt Hon Sir John Redwood, 05 Feb 2026
Here’s the ‘killer punch’
Now for the killer punch. At the bottom of No.10’s summary of little victories from the trip, the reader is invited to look at some detail
Thinking this must have been a link to details of all the ‘export wins’ announced each day, we clicked on it to learn more about the successes of Sir Keir’s Government’s China trip, and it produced this:
As readers can see, this page covers exports up to September of last year, 2025. Nothing on this page has the remotest connection to Sir Keir’s 100-person trip to China last week.
And what is Sir John’s summary of Sir Keir’s 7,400 mile round-trip?
“In a fair give and take negotiation you expect to have as many wins on your own side as the other party has.
“This trip was lopsided in favour of China.
“Our trade was already in heavy deficit with China as they want to buy few of our goods and we buy plenty of theirs. Increasing China trade is likely to mean more of the same, landing us with a bigger deficit which we need to pay for somehow.
“This strengthens their economy and weakens ours.”
– The Rt Hon Sir John Redwood, 05 Feb 2026
Photo above: Sir John, bowling in an English game where fair play is the norm.
© Facts4EU 2025
In Part II of this China Special in association with GB News, we will reveal some amusing details before explaining in layman’s terms why growth – the PM’s whole reason for the trip – will be pitiful for the UK but the polar opposite for the Chinese. You do NOT want to miss this!
Observations
A State Visit this was not – A personal humiliation it was
As for how Sir Keir was treated by his hosts, we must be frank: as an unwelcome nobody. To have a tour of the Golden City with a regular tour guide while it was open to other public tours was shocking.
Everywhere he went he seems to have been guided by flunkeys. It is said he spent all of 40 minutes with Xi, and a similar time with the Prime Minister. The whole thing was a deeply embarrassing spectacle and, knowing the Chinese, it was calculated to be so.
Surely Sir Keir must have been aware? If so, we hope this helps to change his mind about the Chagos Islands forthwith. The idea they will fall into the hands of these people is monstrous.
And finally…
Regular readers know that on Fridays we sometimes used to end with some music, relevant to our report and designed to lift spirits at the end of the week. Now we no longer (for the moment) have sufficient funds to publish on Fridays, this tradition will occasionally and temporarily be switched to our Thursday report. So here you are….
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[ Sources: ONS | HMRC | No.10 ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.